Market Commentary

Bitcoin and Silver – What could they possibly have in common?

I published my thoughts on BTC’s probable rise toward 10k on July 24th. We are there now.

Bitcoin’s had difficulty at the 10k level since Q4 2019… Just as silver’s had difficulty at the 18.80 level, also since Q4 2019. If you look closely at where recent extremes in prices have hit (specifically the last 9 months), you’ll see a lot of mirroring.

Just to be clear – I’m NOT implying that these two assets are always correlated. They are definitely not. However… they have been since ~October 2019, but that’s more likely attributed to risk-on in the markets & a weakening US dollar . A lot of stocks have that price action too, not just silver . Risk-on and risk-off could make everything look like the same chart.

So here’s the bottom line: For Bitcoin bears – could price come down and hit 7500 before it breaks higher? Yes. I’d be a buyer there. Could we retreat and consolidate for the next few years? Yeah, sure. All possibilities are on the table as always.

But this post is more for the bulls. My number one suggestion is to stop being short-term oriented when you are positioned as a long term speculator. One of my biggest mistakes in Bitcoin (among many other mistakes) was selling a lot of what I had from 2015 far too early (see Bitcoin post in 2015). When I look at what my biggest mistakes were in that period, they were all associated with short term thinking. So if you are a bullish long term, commit to being bullish long term. Have multiple accounts if you have to. Timing the markets is a difficult game. You’ll more likely than not find yourself left in the dust and not holding a position. This speaks more to the newer traders (any traders with less than 3 years of experience).

I am bullish . Not like I used to be… but the pot is being stirred. GL.